A practical revealed preference model for separating preferences and availability effects in marriage formation.

Many demographic problems require models for partnership formation. We consider a model for matchings within a bipartite population where individuals have utility for people based on observed and unobserved characteristics. It represents both the availability of potential partners of different types and the preferences of individuals for such people. We develop an estimator for the preference parameters based on sample survey data on partnerships and population composition. We conduct simulation studies based on the Survey of Income and Program Participation showing that the estimator recovers preference parameters that are invariant under different population availabilities and has the correct confidence coverage.

Association of the Delaware Contraceptive Access Now Initiative with Postpartum LARC Use.

OBJECTIVES: Although multi-component policy interventions can be important tools to increase access to contraception, we know little about how they may change contraceptive use among postpartum women. We estimate the association of the Delaware Contraceptive Access Now (DelCAN) initiative with use of postpartum Long-Acting Reversible Contraception (LARC). DelCAN included Medicaid payment reform for immediate postpartum LARC use, provider training and technical assistance in LARC provision, and a public awareness campaign. METHODS: We used a difference-in-differences design and data from the 2012 to 2017 pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system to compare changes in postpartum LARC use in Delaware versus 15 comparison states, and differences in such changes by women's Medicaid enrollment. RESULTS: Relative to the comparison states, postpartum LARC use in Delaware increased by 5.26 percentage points (95% CI 2.90-7.61, P < 0.001) during the 2015-2017 DelCAN implementation period. This increase was the largest among Medicaid-covered women, and grew over the first three implementation years. By the third year of the DelCAN initiative (2017), the relative increase in postpartum LARC use for Medicaid women exceeded that for non-Medicaid women by 7.24 percentage points (95% CI 0.12-14.37, P = 0.046). CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: The DelCAN initiative was associated with increased LARC use among postpartum women in Delaware. During the first 3 years of the initiative, LARC use increased progressively and to a greater extent among Medicaid-enrolled women. Comprehensive initiatives that combine Medicaid payment reforms, provider training, free contraceptive services, and public awareness efforts may reduce unmet demand for highly effective contraceptives in the postpartum months.

Contraceptive Consistency and Poverty after Birth.

Unplanned pregnancies in the U.S. disproportionately occur among poor, less educated, and minority women, but it is unclear whether poverty following a birth is itself an outcome of this pregnancy planning status. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (n=2,101) and National Survey of Family Growth (n=778), we constructed two-year sequences of contraceptive use before a birth that signal an unplanned versus a planned birth. We regressed poverty in the year of the birth both on this contraceptive-sequence variable and on sociodemographic indicators including previous employment and poverty status in the year before the birth, race/ethnicity, education, partnership status, birth order, and family background. Compared to sequences indicating a planned birth, sequences of inconsistent use and non-use of contraception were associated with a higher likelihood of poverty following a birth, both before and after controlling for sociodemographic variables, and before and after additionally controlling for poverty status before the birth. In pooled-survey estimates with all controls included, having not used contraception consistently is associated with a 42% higher odds of poverty after birth. The positive association of poverty after birth with contraceptive inconsistency or non-use, however, is limited to women with low to medium educational attainment. These findings encourage further exploration into relationships between contraceptive access and behavior and subsequent adverse outcomes for the mother and her children.

Women's Use of Long-Acting Reversible Contraception for Birth Timing and Birth Stopping.

The use of long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) methods-intrauterine devices (IUDs) and implants-has recently expanded rapidly in the United States, and these methods together approach the contraceptive pill in current prevalence. Research on LARCs has analyzed their use to reduce unintended pregnancies but not their use to enable intended pregnancies. Knowledge of both is necessary to understand LARCs' potential impacts on the reproductive life courses of U.S. women. We combine data from two nationally representative surveys to estimate women's likelihood and timing of subsequent reproductive events, including births resulting from an intended pregnancy up to nine years after discontinuing LARC use. We estimate that 62% of women will give birth, and 45% will give birth from an intended pregnancy. Additionally, 18% will have a new LARC inserted, and 13% will transition to sterilization. Most of these reproductive events occur within two years after discontinuing LARC use. Births from an intended pregnancy are especially common when no intervening switch to another contraceptive method occurs. We infer that women's motives for using LARC are varied but include the desire to postpone a birth, to postpone a decision about whether to have a(nother) birth, and to transition definitively to the completion of childbearing.

Postpartum contraception method type and risk of a short interpregnancy interval in a state Medicaid population.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the likelihood of a short interpregnancy interval (IPI) resulting in a birth among women covered by Medicaid, as a function of postpartum contraceptive method type. STUDY DESIGN: We used Medicaid claims and eligibility data to identify women (aged 15-44) who had a Medicaid-financed birth in Delaware in the years 2012-2014 (n = 10,328). Claims were analyzed to determine postpartum contraceptive type within 60 days of the index birth, and linked birth certificates were used to determine the incidence and timing of a subsequent birth through 2018 (regardless of payer). We used logistic regression to analyze the likelihood of having a short IPI following the index birth as a function of postpartum contraceptive type, controlling for preterm births, parity, having a postpartum checkup, and maternal characteristics including age, race, education, and marital status. RESULTS: Compared to patients receiving postpartum long-acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC), patients with no contraceptive claims had nearly 5 times higher odds (odds ratio [OR] = 4.98, confidence interval [CI] = 3.05-8.13) and those with claims for moderately effective methods (injectable, pill, patch, or ring) had 3.5 times higher odds (OR = 3.51, CI = 2.13-5.77) of a subsequent birth following a short IPI. CONCLUSIONS: In a state population of Medicaid-enrolled women, women with claims for postpartum LARC had substantially lower risk of a short IPI resulting in a birth. IMPLICATIONS: Women who received LARC within 60 days postpartum are less likely to experience a short interpregnancy interval resulting in a birth. The evidence suggests that recent state policy changes that make postpartum LARC more accessible to those that desire it will be an effective strategy in helping patients obtain desired birth intervals.

Changes to Contraceptive Method Use at Title X Clinics Following Delaware Contraceptive Access Now, 2008-2017.

Objectives. To measure changes in the contraceptive methods used by Title X clients after implementation of Delaware Contraceptive Access Now, a public-private initiative that aims to increase access to contraceptives, particularly long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs).Methods. Using administrative data from the 2008-2017 Family Planning Annual Reports and a difference-in-differences design, we compared changes in contraceptive method use among adult female Title X family planning clients in Delaware with changes in a set of comparison states. We considered permanent methods, LARCs, moderately effective methods, less effective methods, and no method use.Results. Results suggest a 3.2-percentage-point increase in LARC use relative to changes in other states (a 40% increase from baseline). We were unable to make definitive conclusions about other contraceptive method types.Conclusions. Delaware Contraceptive Access Now increased LARC use among Title X clients. Our results have implications for states considering comprehensive family planning initiatives.

Intentionally or Ambivalently Risking a Short Interpregnancy Interval: Reproductive-Readiness Factors in Women's Postpartum Non-Use of Contraception.

A focus of research on short interpregnancy intervals (IPI) has been on young disadvantaged women whose births are likely to be unintended. Later initiation of family formation in the United States and other high-income countries points to the need to also consider a woman's attributes indicative of readiness for purposefully accelerated family formation achieved through short IPIs. We test for whether factors indicating "reproductive readiness"-including being married, being older, and having just had a first birth or a birth later than desired-predict a woman's non-use of contraception in the postpartum months. We also test for whether this contraceptive non-use results explicitly from wanting to become pregnant again. The data come from the 2012-2015 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, representing women who recently gave birth in any of 35 U.S. states and New York City (N = 120,111). We find that these reproductive-readiness factors are highly predictive of women's postpartum non-use of contraception because of a stated desire to become pregnant and are moderately predictive of contraceptive non-use without an explicit pregnancy intention. We conclude that planning for, or ambivalently risking, a short IPI is a frequent family-formation strategy for women whose family formation has been delayed. This is likely to become increasingly common as family formation in the United States is initiated later in the reproductive life course.

First birth before first stable employment and subsequent single-mother 'disconnection' before and after the Welfare Reform and Great Recession.

We analyze data from two nationally-representative U.S. surveys that include cohorts of young women before and after the 1996 Welfare Reform. Women were more likely to have their first birth precede their first stable employment after than before the reform. Women with this life-course sequence were at higher risk of single motherhood and, as single mothers, were at higher risk of 'disconnection' simultaneously from earned income and public cash benefits. Declines in employment in the Great-Recession period resulted in 'disconnection' for between a fifth and a quarter of single mothers who did not experience stable employment before their first birth.

Reducing Preventable Hospitalization and Disparity: Association With Local Health Department Mental Health Promotion Activities.

INTRODUCTION: Serving as the center of community-engaged health programs, local health departments can play a critical role in promoting community mental health. The objectives of this study were to explore the association between local health department activities and (1) preventable hospitalizations for individuals with mental disorders, and (2) associated racial disparities in preventable hospitalizations. METHOD: Employing the linked data sets of the 2012-2013 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project state inpatient discharge file of the State of Maryland, the National Association of County and City Health Officials Profiles Survey, the Area Resource File, and U.S. Census data, the authors estimated the association between local health department activities (i.e., provision of mental health preventive care and community mental health promotion) and the reduction of the preventable hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions and coexisting mental disorders. All the data analyses were conducted during September 2016-August 2017. RESULTS: Multilevel regression showed that local health departments' provision of mental health preventive care (OR=0.76, 95% CI=0.63, 0.92) and mental health promotion activities (OR=0.77, 95% CI=0.62, 0.94) were significantly associated with lower rates of preventable hospitalizations for individuals with ambulatory care-sensitive conditions and coexisting mental disorders. Decomposition results suggested that local health departments' direct provision of mental health preventive care could reduce 9% of the racial disparities. CONCLUSIONS: Improving care coordination and integration are essential to meeting the growing demands for healthcare access, while controlling costs and improving quality of service delivery. These results suggest that it will be effective to engage local health departments in the integrated behavioral health system.

Retrospective Reporting of First Employment in the Life-courses of U.S. Women.

We investigate the accuracy of young women's retrospective reporting on their first substantial employment in three major, nationally-representative United States surveys, examining hypotheses that longer recall duration, employment histories with lower salience and higher complexity, and an absence of "anchoring" biographical details will adversely affect reporting accuracy. We compare retrospective reports to benchmark panel survey estimates for the same cohorts. We find that sociodemographic groups-notably non-Hispanic White women and women with college-educated mothers-whose early employment histories at these ages are in aggregate more complex (multiple jobs) and lower in salience (more part-time jobs), are more likely to omit the occurrence of their first substantial job or employment, and to misreport their first job or employment as occurring at an older age. We also find that retrospective reports are skewed towards overreporting longer, therefore more salient, later jobs over shorter, earlier jobs. The relatively small magnitudes of differences, however, indicate that the retrospective questions nevertheless capture these summary indicators of first substantial employment reasonably accurately. Moreover, these differences are especially small for groups of women who are more likely to experience labor-market disadvantage, and for women with early births.

Multiple imputation for demographic hazard models with left-censored predictor variables: Application to employment duration and fertility in the EU-SILC.

A common problem when using panel data is that an individual's history is incompletely known at the first wave. We show that multiple imputation, the method commonly used for data that are missing due to non-response, may also be used to impute these data that are "missing by design." Our application is to a woman's duration of fulltime employment as a predictor of her risk of first birth. We multiply-impute employment status two years earlier to "incomplete" cases for which employment status is observed only in the most recent year. We then pool these "completed" cases with the "complete" cases to derive regression estimates for the full sample. Relative to not being fulltime employed, having been fulltime-employed for two or more years is a positive and statistically significant predictor of childbearing whereas having just entered fulltime employment is not. The fulltime-employment duration parameter variances are about one third lower in the multiply-imputed sample than in the complete-data sample, and only in the multiply-imputed sample does the employment-duration coefficient attain statistical significance.

Epidemiological Paradox or Immigrant Vulnerability? Obesity Among Young Children of Immigrants.

According to the "immigrant epidemiological paradox," immigrants and their children enjoy health advantages over their U.S.-born peers--advantages that diminish with greater acculturation. We investigated child obesity as a potentially significant deviation from this paradox for second-generation immigrant children. We evaluated two alternate measures of mother's acculturation: age at arrival in the United States and English language proficiency. To obtain sufficient numbers of second-generation immigrant children, we pooled samples across two related, nationally representative surveys. Each included measured (not parent-reported) height and weight of kindergartners. We also estimated models that alternately included and excluded mother's pre-pregnancy weight status as a predictor. Our findings are opposite to those predicted by the immigrant epidemiological paradox: children of U.S.-born mothers were less likely to be obese than otherwise similar children of foreign-born mothers; and the children of the least-acculturated immigrant mothers, as measured by low English language proficiency, were the most likely to be obese. Foreign-born mothers had lower (healthier) pre-pregnancy weight than U.S.-born mothers, and this was protective against their second-generation children's obesity. This protection, however, was not sufficiently strong to outweigh factors associated or correlated with the mothers' linguistic isolation and marginal status as immigrants.

Differences by mother's education in the effect of childcare on child obesity.

Previous studies have found adverse effects of maternal employment on child obesity for higher educated mothers. Using a quasi-structural model, we find additionally a lower risk of obesity for children of less educated mothers with increased time in non-parental childcare.

Evaluation of bias in estimates of early childhood obesity from parent-reported heights and weights.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated bias in estimated obesity prevalence owing to error in parental reporting. We also evaluated bias mitigation through application of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's biologically implausible value (BIV) cutoffs. METHODS: We simulated obesity prevalence of children aged 2 to 5 years in 2 panel surveys after counterfactually substituting parameters estimated from 1999-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data for prevalence of extreme height and weight and for proportions obese in extreme height or weight categories. RESULTS: Heights reported below the first and fifth height-for-age percentiles explained between one half and two thirds, respectively, of total bias in obesity prevalence. Bias was reduced by one tenth when excluding cases with height-for-age and weight-for-age BIVs and by one fifth when excluding cases with body mass-index-for-age BIVs. Applying BIVs, however, resulted in incorrect exclusion of nonnegligible proportions of obese children. CONCLUSIONS: Correcting the reporting of children's heights in the first percentile alone may reduce overestimation of early childhood obesity prevalence in surveys with parental reporting by one half to two thirds. Excluding BIVs has limited effectiveness in mitigating this bias.

Two Decades of Negative Educational Selectivity of Mexican Migrants to the United States.

Immigration is commonly considered to be selective of more able individuals. Studies comparing the educational attainment of Mexican immigrants in the United States to that of the Mexican resident population support this characterization. Upward educational-attainment biases in both coverage and measurement, however, may be substantial in U.S. DATA SOURCES: Moreover, differences in educational attainment by place size are very large within Mexico, and U.S. data sources provide no information on immigrants' places of origin within Mexico. To address these problems, we use multiple sources of nationally-representative Mexican survey data to re-evaluate the educational selectivity of working-age Mexican migrants to the United States over the 1990s and 2000s. We document disproportionately rural and small-urban-area origins of Mexican migrants and a steep positive gradient of educational attainment by place size. We show that together these conditions induced strongly negative educational selection of Mexican migrants throughout the 1990s and 2000s. We interpret this finding as consistent with low returns to the education of unauthorized migrants and few opportunities for authorized migration.

Multiple Imputation For Combined-Survey Estimation With Incomplete Regressors In One But Not Both Surveys.

Within-survey multiple imputation (MI) methods are adapted to pooled-survey regression estimation where one survey has more regressors, but typically fewer observations, than the other. This adaptation is achieved through: (1) larger numbers of imputations to compensate for the higher fraction of missing values; (2) model-fit statistics to check the assumption that the two surveys sample from a common universe; and (3) specificying the analysis model completely from variables present in the survey with the larger set of regressors, thereby excluding variables never jointly observed. In contrast to the typical within-survey MI context, cross-survey missingness is monotonic and easily satisfies the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption needed for unbiased MI. Large efficiency gains and substantial reduction in omitted variable bias are demonstrated in an application to sociodemographic differences in the risk of child obesity estimated from two nationally-representative cohort surveys.

Parent-reported height and weight as sources of bias in survey estimates of childhood obesity.

Parental reporting of height and weight was evaluated for US children aged 2-13 years. The prevalence of obesity (defined as a body mass index value (calculated as weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) in the 95th percentile or higher) and its height and weight components were compared in child supplements of 2 nationally representative surveys: the 1996-2008 Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 Cohort (NLSY79-Child) and the 1997 Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID-CDS). Sociodemographic differences in parent reporting error were analyzed. Error was largest for children aged 2-5 years. Underreporting of height, not overreporting of weight, generated a strong upward bias in obesity prevalence at those ages. Frequencies of parent-reported heights below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (Atlanta, Georgia) first percentile were implausibly high at 16.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 14.3, 19.0) in the NLSY79-Child and 20.6% (95% CI: 16.0, 26.3) in the PSID-CDS. They were highest among low-income children at 33.2% (95% CI: 22.4, 46.1) in the PSID-CDS and 26.2% (95% CI: 20.2, 33.2) in the NLSY79-Child. Bias in the reporting of obesity decreased with children's age and reversed direction at ages 12-13 years. Underreporting of weight increased with age, and underreporting of height decreased with age. We recommend caution to researchers who use parent-reported heights, especially for very young children, and offer practical solutions for survey data collection and research on child obesity.

Prenatal, perinatal, early life, and sociodemographic factors underlying racial differences in the likelihood of high body mass index in early childhood.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated early childhood disparities in high body mass index (BMI) between Black and White US children. METHODS: We compared differences in Black and White children's prevalence of sociodemographic, prenatal, perinatal, and early life risk and protective factors; fit logistic regression models predicting high BMI (≥ 95th percentile) at age 4 to 5 years to 2 nationally representative samples followed from birth; and performed separate and pooled-survey estimations of these models. RESULTS: After adjustment for sample design-related variables, models predicting high BMI in the 2 samples were statistically indistinguishable. In the pooled-survey models, Black children's odds of high BMI were 59% higher than White children's (odds ratio [OR] = 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI]= 1.32, 1.92). Sociodemographic predictors reduced the racial disparity to 46% (OR = 1.46; 95% CI = 1.17, 1.81). Prenatal, perinatal, and early life predictors reduced the disparity to nonsignificance (OR = 1.18; 95% CI = 0.93, 1.49). Maternal prepregnancy obesity and short-duration or no breastfeeding were among predictors for which racial differences in children's exposures most disadvantaged Black children. CONCLUSIONS: Racial disparities in early childhood high BMI were largely explained by potentially modifiable risk and protective factors.

The quality of male fertility data in major U.S. surveys.

Researchers continue to question fathers' willingness to report their biological children in surveys and the ability of surveys to adequately represent fathers. To address these concerns, this study evaluates the quality of men's fertility data in the 1979 and 1997 cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79 and NLSY97) and in the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Comparing fertility rates in each survey with population rates based on data from Vital Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau, we document how the incomplete reporting of births in different surveys varies according to men's characteristics, including their age, race, marital status, and birth cohort. In addition, we use Monte Carlo simulations based on the NSFG data to demonstrate how birth underreporting biases associations between early parenthood and its antecedents. We find that in the NSFG, roughly four out of five early births were reported; but in the NLSY79 and NLSY97, almost nine-tenths of early births were reported. In all three surveys, incomplete reporting was especially pronounced for nonmarital births. Our results suggest that the quality of male fertility data is strongly linked to survey design and that it has implications for models of early male fertility.

Declining return migration from the United States to Mexico in the late-2000s recession: a research note.

Researchers in the United States and Mexico have variously asserted that return migration from the United States to Mexico increased substantially, remained unchanged, or declined slightly in response to the 2008-2009 U.S. recession and fall 2008 global financial crisis. The present study addresses this debate using microdata from 2005 through 2009 from a large-scale, quarterly Mexican household survey, the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), after first validating the ENOE against return-migration estimates from a specialist demographic survey, the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID). Declines in annual return-migration flows of up to a third between 2007 and 2009 were seen among the predominantly labor-migrant groups of male migrants and all 18- to 40-year-old migrants with less than a college education; and a decline in total return migration was seen in the fourth quarter of 2008 (immediately after the triggering of the global financial crisis) compared with the fourth quarter of 2007.